Introduction
As indicated in the discussion of the French Revolution, there is a
logical and long-range pattern that revolutions follow. Therefore,
understanding the pattern of past revolutions can help us anticipate
events in current revolutions, more specifically the final stages of
the process now taking place in Russia and China. One word of caution,
however: these are likely trends, not absolute certainties. Outside
events (e.g., a major war) and other historical forces unique to Russia
and China respectively, could divert events in a very different
direction from what is indicated here. Still, this pattern generally
holds up and should serve as a guide in how we deal with nations still
undergoing this process. That being said, following is a comparison of
the French Revolution, which after 82 years finally reached a stable
democratic form of government by 1871, and the Russian Revolution,
which after 92 years is presumably in its final stage of evolution
toward democracy.
Forces leading to revolution
Both countries shared three elements that helped lead to war:
1) Both regimes were burdened by heavy debts incurred from wars. In
France’s case, this was the debt incurred by its support of the
American Revolution. For Russia, this was the even higher cost in lives
and money suffered during the first three years of World War I.
2) In each country, there was a growing gap between economic progress
and social and political stagnation. For the French this was the
continued prominence and privileges of the noble class as opposed to
the more liberal ideas and progressive economic practices of the middle
class. For Russia, this largely came from the peasantry, whose economic
progress from Peter Stolypin’s agrarian reforms contrasted with the
repressive rights and privileges of the nobles. In each case new
political ideas aggravated these frustrations. In France these were the
ideas of Enlightenment philosophes such as Rousseau and Voltaire. In
Russia it was Marxism.
3) Both countries had weak leaders who let events get quickly out of
control. In France and Russia respectively, these were Louis XVI and
Nicholas II.
The early stages of revolution
Both revolutions started out with moderate regimes that kept one or
more of the old regimes’ policies to maintain the look of continuity
and legitimacy. In France, that government was the National Assembly,
which kept the king as a figurehead and honored the royal debt. In
Russia, it was the Duma, which kept Russia in World War I. In both
cases these policies just worsened the situation, leading to more
unrest. Further aggravating both situations was the fact that replacing
an old system with a completely different one (whether in politics,
business, or sports) typically sees things deteriorate further before
they improve. Unfortunately, the high expectations for rapid
improvement did not give the new regimes the time they needed to turn
things around.
The crisis stage of revolution
Faced with growing unrest at home and military defeats abroad (the
French having rashly declared war on Austria and Prussia in 1792), the
moderate governments in France and Russia saw the rise of more radical
factions supported by the urban working classes, which alarmed foreign
powers and spurred them to intervene before the respective revolutions
got out of control. Such intervention (by the First Coalition in
France’s case and Russia’ erstwhile allies in World War I) in the short
run just destabilized France and Russia further, which led to more
military defeats, more support for the radicals, and so on.
In each case, this was the crisis stage of the revolution, where
extreme radicals seized power and imposed harsh dictatorial rule to
deal with the current emergency. In France it was the Jacobins,
supported by the Sans Culottes, who imposed emergency economic
measures, a universal draft, and the reign of terror. Similarly, Russia
saw the Bolsheviks, supported by the working class soviets who imposed
war communism to deal with the economic crisis and the Red Terror,
which they consciously copied from the French Revolution’s Reign of
Terror.
Conservative retrenchment and the dictator stage
In both revolutions, final victory and exhaustion from the crisis
stage led to a brief conservative retrenchment to help their respective
peoples recover. In France this was the period of the somewhat loose
and corrupt Directory (1785-99). In Russia, this was Lenin’s New
Economic Policy that allowed a degree of free enterprise to return so
the economy could recover.
However, the overthrow of the Directory by Napoleon Bonaparte and
Stalin’s rise to power after Lenin’s death in 1924 led to ruthless
dictators who masked their repressive regimes with the revolutionary
ideals they supposedly represented. Although Napoleon was finally
defeated and Stalin won World War II and kept power till his death in
1953, both dictators effectively ruined their respective countries with
their harsh policies.
Gradual evolution toward stable economy & democracy
Therefore, Russia has taken longer in its evolution toward democracy
than France did, because it took another thirty-five years for Russia
to finally collapse beneath the weight of the Stalinist system.
Despite, this, Russia has continued to follow a path similar to
France’s. After Napoleon France would undergo two more revolutions (in
1830 and 1848) and abortive attempts at democracy that would lead to a
second dictatorship, this time under Bonaparte’s nephew, Napoleon III.
Unlike his uncle, Napoleon III was much less aggressive in his foreign
policy, focusing on France’s economic and industrial development. As a
result, when Napoleon III fell from power in 1870 during the
Franco-Prussian War, he left behind a strong economy and politically
active and savvy middle class that ensured the stability of France’s
Third Republic.
Likewise, Russia would see the overthrow of communism in 1991 and
the establishment of a republic. However, as with France in 1830 and
1848, Russia’s economy was a shambles and it had virtually no middle
class with which to sustain a viable democracy. Since then, Vladimir
Putin has taken charge and, much like Napoleon III, has ruled with a
firm hand while promoting economic growth. Presumably the middle class
emerging from that growth will establish a stable democracy sometime in
the future.

