Cuba's President Raul Castro attends a ceremony at the Palace of the Revolution in Havana May 19, 2015. Photo: Reuters
José Azel, WSJ: Cuba After the Castros: The Likely Scenario
The armed forces control 70% of the economy now. It’s not likely they’ll give that up for a free market.
The 2008 succession from Fidel to Raúl Castro was efficient and effective. But the popular hallucination outside the island—in which Gen. Castro intervenes forcefully to end the communist era and inaugurates a democratic, market-oriented Cuba—is not going to be how the story ends.
Given Raúl’s age—84—there will be another succession in the near future. The critical question is not what economic reforms Raúl may introduce, but what follows him.
José Ramón Machado Ventura, second secretary of the Communist Party, is also 84 years old and Cuba watchers do not see him as the next leader. If Miguel DÃaz-Canel, 55, the first vice president of Cuba, ascends to the presidency, he will most likely be a “civilian” figurehead for the generals to present to the international community.
WNU Editor: Could not have said it any better.
Posts
