Fars News/Reuters
Robert Beckhusen, War Is Boring: Stop Freaking Out — Iran’s Military Is Weak Even Without Sanctions
Tehran remains behind its regional rivals.
Iran and the P5+1 coalition of six major powers have reached a historic deal to halt Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program. Some months from now, as Iran verifies compliance with the agreement, a series of debilitating international sanctions targeting the country’s economy and military will disappear.
To be sure, the deal is good for the Iranian military. It will free Iran to make arms deals abroad, replace some of its largely 1970s and 1980s-vintage technology and increase revenue through oil exports. In short, Tehran’s armed forces are likely to strengthen.
“If the deal is reached and results in sanctions relief, which results in more economic power and more purchasing power for the Iranian regime, it’s my expectation that it’s not all going to flow into the economy to improve the lot of the average Iranian citizen,” Gen. Martin Dempsey, America’s top military officer, said during a June 9 visit to Jerusalem.
WNU Editor: On a small scale .... one should be worried. Terrorism, asymmetric warfare, support for groups like Hezbollah, etc. .... the Iranian military machine plays a critical role and that role should should never be underestimated. But looking at the big picture .... I have not been impressed with the Iranian military or the Revolutionary Guards. They are now involved in multiple wars .... Syria, Iraq, and Yemen .... and they are clearly not winning. No surprise .... they lack the sophisticated weaponry and tools needed to fight these wars .... and to obtain those tools will involve investing tens of billions of dollars over the next decade or two to just catch up to neighbors like Saudi Arabia or Israel. Will Iran make this investment .... my prediction is that they will .... but then again .... it is going to take them a long time to even come close to matching what their neighbors have.
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