With the battles of Mosul and Raqqa dislodging the Islamic State (ISIS) from its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, and the Syrian civil war becoming a war of attrition, the Middle East’s most acute conflicts are evolving fast. But that doesn’t mean they will soon be resolved.
ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate was never a state that could be driven to unconditional surrender, meaning that the battles of Mosul and Raqqa were never going to be decisive, even if they did eliminate ISIS sanctuaries. As ISIS’s spread into Libya and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula underscores, there are plenty of loosely controlled areas available to be penetrated.
For now, ISIS has shifted its strategy to planning and inspiring terrorist attacks in the Middle East, Europe, and even Southeast Asia. Its next step could be to destabilise Arab regimes from within—a strategy that cannot be countered by the international coalitions now closing in on Raqqa.
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WNU Editor: The only part of this commentary that I disagreed with was this ....
.... America’s Sunni allies are drawn to Trump, partly because he has little interest in the kinds of democratic reforms that his predecessor Barack Obama used to push
Aside from his Cairo speech and a few others, pushing democratic reforms in the Middle East was not President Obama's priority. His first priority when he was elected was to get U.S. troops out of Iraq ASAP. As for America's Sunni allies being drawn to Trump .... America's Sunni allies have always been close to the U.S. (not because of Trump). What changed in the past few years was President Obama's outreach to Iran .... his decision to not keep Israel and Arab allies in the loop .... and then making a nuclear deal with the mullahs in Tehran. This broke the trust, and it is only now (albeit with many obstacles) that this trust is coming back. As for the rest of this commentary .... a thumbs up.
Update: Hezbollah. Hamas. The Palestinians. These are conflicts (against Israel) that should also not be ignored.
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